Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) can make or break your year. In 2024, shoppers spent $41.1 billion online during the five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, and 2025 is expected to be even bigger.
But here’s the catch: more sales mean more shipments, more customer questions, and way more stress on your logistics.
If your order tracking system crashes, your notifications fail, or customers can’t find their orders, all those sales turn into refund requests and angry reviews. We’ve seen it happen to brands that weren’t prepared.
This guide walks you through everything you need to nail BFCM logistics in 2025. You’ll learn how to prepare your shipping operations, manage carrier capacity, and keep customers informed with real-time tracking.
The 3 Common BFCM Logistics Disasters (And How to Avoid Them)
Talking Logistics’ report on ecommerce logistics found that the top four U.S. carriers saw transit times slow by 9% to 37% during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. When even the largest networks face that kind of strain, smaller brands need to be ready for supply chain challenges of their own.
Here are three of the common BFCM logistics disasters that can affect your operations and how to avoid them.
Disaster #1: Carrier Capacity Crush
Relying on one shipping carrier during BFCM puts your entire operation at risk. If you only work with one carrier and they reach capacity during Black Friday weekend, you’re stuck.
The smart move is lining up multiple carrier partnerships now, before BFCM chaos begins. Work with at least three different shipping partners and compare their capacity limits for your expected volume.
Then, split your orders across carriers based on what works best for each shipment. For example, you might use Carrier A for expedited shipping options under 5 pounds while Carrier B handles your standard shipping for packages over 10 pounds.
If one carrier stops pickups, you can route orders through your backup partners right away and still hit your delivery windows.
Disaster #2: WISMO Tickets Flooding Your Support Team
Gorgias shows that support tickets jump about 20% during BFCM.
WISMO (Where Is My Order) queries make up the majority of them. Customers want to know where their packages are, whether they’ve shipped from your warehouse, and what the exact delivery status is.
Instead of letting these tickets drain your support team, set up proactive communication. Send automated shipping confirmations the moment orders leave your warehouse. Include a tracking number and estimated delivery date in every notification.
When delays happen, don’t wait for customers to contact you. Send proactive updates like “Hi [customer name], your order is running a day behind due to carrier congestion. It’s moving through the network and should arrive by [new date].” This heads off angry emails before they start.
Disaster #3: Returns Tsunami
ZigZag Global’s returns analysis showed a 60% rise in returns during the 2022 Black Friday period compared to the year before. While there’s an increase in your sales, there’s also a chance that some of those orders come back to your warehouse in January.
Without a system to handle this volume, returned products sit unsorted, your team can’t identify what’s sellable versus damaged, and refunds take forever to process. Some customers who waited weeks for refunds or undelivered items may also start filing credit card disputes.
We suggest using a return management platform and combining it with a clear return policy that covers timelines and conditions.
Your Ready-to-Use BFCM Logistics Action Plan
A successful BFCM operation depends on how well you plan before the sale, perform during the rush, and recover afterward. Here’s what each phase focuses on:
- Pre-BFCM: Focuses on accurate demand forecasting, organizing inventory, and setting up your fulfillment operations before the first order comes in.
- During BFCM: Centers focus on processing orders efficiently, managing carriers, and keeping customers informed through real-time tracking.
- Post-BFCM: Look at how you manage returns, review your performance, and use the data to prepare for next year.
We’ll go through each one in detail below.
Phase 1: Pre-BFCM Preparation
1. Master Your BFCM Demand Forecasting
Most brands either run out of bestsellers too early or end up with excess inventory they can’t sell. You have to review your historical sales data from previous Black Fridays to get a more accurate order forecast.
Look at which products sold fastest and when traffic peaked. Many stores see order volumes increase by 2 to 4 times during the BFCM weekend.
Then consider what’s new this year. Are you running bigger ads or adding new product lines?
These can push numbers even higher. Build a few different demand scenarios and plan somewhere in the middle so your inventory and supply chain can handle the pressure if orders surge during the holiday season.
2. Optimize Your Inventory Strategy
Once you have your forecast, it’s time to plan your stock. Start with an ABC inventory analysis. This means classifying your products by their importance to your sales.
“A” items are your top earners and deserve more focus. “B” items sell consistently but more slowly, and “C” items move the least. Knowing this helps you decide which products to reorder first and which to stock in smaller quantities through better inventory management.
We also suggest you prepare a safety stock buffer, and here’s how you can compute that:
(Maximum Daily Sales x Maximum Lead Time) – (Average Daily Sales x Average Lead Time)
For BFCM, multiply your normal safety stock by 1.5-2x since demand spikes are unpredictable during this peak season.
3. Prepare Your Fulfillment Operations
Your warehouse setup has to be ready before the event.
- Review your layout so high-demand items are easy to access and packing areas stay clear. If your bestsellers are stored on the back shelves, move them closer to the packing stations.
- Bring in seasonal workers two weeks before Black Friday and train them while order volume is still manageable. They need to know your warehouse layout and packing procedures before the rush starts.
- Reorganize your warehouse so your bestselling items sit close to packing stations. During BFCM, you don’t have time for your team to walk across the building for every order.
- Run stress tests on your systems. Process mock orders at three times your normal volume and watch where things slow down during these high-demand periods.
Phase 2: BFCM Weekend Execution
1. Streamline Order Processing
Okay. After all the planning and forecasting, it’s time to make your system work. Orders come in faster than usual during the BFCM, so your team has to be in one rhythm.
You have to set priorities and communicate which orders should go out first. Is it going to be those with express shipping? Or are you prioritizing loyal customers or higher cart values? With clear priorities, you’ll help everyone stay aligned even when order volume climbs from hundreds to thousands.
Automation is also a big factor here. It’s what allows your fulfillment team to keep pace. You can set automatic rules for sorting orders by shipping speed or region, printing batches of labels, and syncing tracking updates to your system. These actions eliminate repetitive work that eats into your processing capacity.
2. Manage Carriers and Shipping Proactively
Your shipping partners manage thousands of orders during BFCM, which puts heavy demand on their delivery networks. That can affect pickup times, tracking updates, and final delivery performance.
It’s important to monitor how each carrier performs in a day. For example, you have to know:
- Pickup completion rates
- Scan accuracy for each route
- Delivery turnaround times
When you spot performance issues, act immediately. If a carrier is falling behind, route new orders to a different partner before the delays compound. Waiting only makes things worse during peak season.
You’ll also need exception alerts set up to catch delayed or stuck shipments in real time. When an alert triggers, your operations team can contact the carrier, resolve the issue, and reroute future pickups if needed. This proactive approach prevents small hiccups from snowballing into customer complaints.
3. Deliver Transparent Order Tracking
A shipment tracking software is necessary for managing BFCM order volume. It lets you monitor all shipments in real time to catch delays early and keep customers informed throughout the delivery process.
One of the biggest benefits is automated notifications. The software can send real-time updates via email or SMS, so when customers receive “Your order just shipped!” or “Your package arrives tomorrow,” they stay in the loop without needing to contact support.
Branded tracking pages are another must-have feature. Instead of sending customers to generic carrier sites, your system creates a custom page where they can check their order status anytime. This keeps them engaged with your brand and makes it easier to find delivery information whenever they want it.
You may be interested in:
5 Best BFCM Order Tracking Strategies [2025]
BFCM 2025: The Ultimate Guide for Ecommerce Brands
Phase 3: Post-BFCM Recovery and Analysis
1. Handle Returns Efficiently
How you handle BFCM returns directly impacts your cash flow and whether customers buy from you again.
Create a clear and concise return policy and put it on your site’s footer, each product page, and tracking page. It should mention your return window (30, 60, or 90 days) and what condition you accept products in (sealed, unworn with tags, or unopened).
An FAQ section helps answer common questions like how long it takes to process a return and whether you cover return shipping costs.
Set up a dedicated returns area in your warehouse. Your team needs to inspect returned items, decide what can be resold, and get them back in inventory. If you use a 3PL, confirm now if they can handle increased return volume in January,… because not all of them can.
You also have to pay attention to why products come back. Are customers returning the same item because of sizing issues? Is the packaging arriving damaged? Track these patterns so you can fix the root problems before the next BFCM and enhance customer satisfaction.
2. Analyze Performance for Next Year
Pull your performance data and compare it against your targets. Check your average order fulfillment time, carrier on-time delivery rates, and the volume of shipping-related support tickets.
If your two-day shipping promise stretched to four, that points to a process or capacity issue. If one carrier often misses delivery targets, reassess your carrier lineup.
Collect feedback from the people who handled the work directly. Your warehouse staff can point out layout issues that slow down packing. Their feedback identifies operational issues that data alone won’t show and helps you predict future demand based on actual order flow patterns from this year’s sales.
Compile everything into a detailed report with your own analysis. Note which processes ran smoothly, which fell short, and the actions to take before BFCM 2026.
This document becomes one of your key strategies for improving operations and retaining new customers. It helps your brand compete with other online retailers next year. When you implement these logistics improvements, you attract customers through faster, more reliable service.
BFCM Logistics Readiness Checklist
Here’s a checklist version of the action plan above so you can quickly assess whether your team has everything in place for a smooth BFCM operation.
Pre-BFCM Preparation (Complete 2-4 weeks before Black Friday):
- Have you reviewed last year’s sales data and built demand scenarios for 2-4x order volume?
- Did you complete the ABC inventory analysis, add safety stock buffers, and set up tools for managing inventory?
- Is your warehouse organized with bestsellers near packing stations, seasonal staff trained, and systems tested to avoid significant delays?
BFCM Weekend Execution (During the sale):
- Are order priorities set and automation running for sorting, labels, and tracking updates?
- Are you monitoring carrier performance daily and have a backup plan to ensure timely delivery?
- Is your order tracking system reliable enough to handle high order volumes for BFCM? Is tracking updates real-time and reliable?
Post-BFCM Recovery (Within 2 weeks after the sale):
- Do you have a clear return policy posted for refunds and a dedicated area to process returns efficiently?
- Have you pulled performance data, gathered team feedback, and documented improvements to maximize sales next year?
Transform Your BFCM Logistics with TrackingMore
TrackingMore is built for ecommerce brands that need full shipment visibility and control during peak season. We make BFCM logistics simple so you can focus on sales, not shipping chaos.
Our platform connects with over 1,500 global carriers and integrates with major ecommerce platforms like Shopify and Amazon. You get real-time tracking updates for every shipment in one centralized dashboard.
Need to automate your tracking workflows? Our tracking API offers 99.9% uptime with seamless integration into your existing system. If issues ever come up, our 24/7 technical support team is ready to help keep your operations running smoothly.
This BFCM, turn logistics into your competitive advantage.
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The TrackingMore team shares insights on logistics tracking technology, industry trends, and e-commerce logistics solutions to help businesses streamline shipment tracking and enhance customer post-purchase experience.
